Arthur R. Marshall Foundation & Florida Environmental
Institute, Inc., for the Everglades
Public Comment Oct 15, 2013 on
The CEPP DRAFT
Project Implementation Report (PIR)
The Art Marshall.org is
pleased to have the opportunity to comment on the Central Everglades Panning
Project (CEPP) Draft PIR. These comments
are an expansion of public comment provided to the Water Resources Advisory
Commission (WRAC) Oct 3, 2013, following the CEPP update by Tom Teets, SFWMD.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: We support CEPP as the first step in CERP to
restore sheet flow as envisioned in the 1981 Marshall Plan published as Friends
of the Everglades News Letter and petition, by Marjory Stoneman Douglas: Effect
repair requires restoration of sheet flow to the greatest possible extent from
the Kissimmee Lakes to Florida Bay…. The purpose of this petition is to achieve
environmental benefits accruing form repair of the Everglades. As it was in the Marshall Plan, benefits
is a powerful word in the CEPP DRAFT
PIR, with the word benefits appearing some 175 times in the CEPP main
document. However the absence of a
publishable ecosystem services valuation (ESV) to define benefits, relative to
cost, thus also leaving absent a clear measure of CEPP return on investment, is a deficiency
that makes the CEPP PIR sticker shock price harder to sell; as noted by the
National Research Council (NRC 2005) no publishable value has a default value
of zero (0). A Total Economic Valuation
of CEPP benefits, a synthesis format per NRC 2005 remains an unfulfilled
challenge to what could be a major enhancing feature for better environmental
decision-support. Based on CEPP ESV
Calculations in the attached spread-sheet, and previous demonstrations we conclude that a TEV of
benefits will always lead to a robust B:C calculation of an order of
magnitude approximating 20:1
DISCUSSION AND RESULTS
We support the CEPP. Having been involved in and observed at close
hand, CERP/CEPP from December, 1997 to
present, the CEPP process has been an amazing and encouraging process. Kudo’s to the CEPP PDT and all who supported
it for speeding it along, with more streamlining of process to go.
In the list of public
comments received summarized in the WRAC update, we would emphasize the need
for a flow through system and additional land acquisition in the EAA.
We would add the need for
a publishable CEPP Ecosystem Service Valuation (ESV) as the means to better
sell the CEPP program and get funding by a synthesis that is clear to all. CEPP benefits are widely touted, with the
word “benefit” appearing 175 times in
the main report. However there is no
published economic value given to these
benefits. A major point made by a National Research
Council (NRC) 2005 Study is that when no value is given the default value is
zero (0).
As we have done in the
past, (ARM Foundation: Economic
Valuation of Restoring the River of Grass, 2010) we are providing as part of this
comment, a demonstration on how a total economic valuation (TEV - NRC 2005)
might be done for CEPP. We have used
CEPP habitat unit assessment (HUA) “lift” data (difference in ESV before CEPP
and after CEPP), and applied the benefit transfer method using generic ecosystem
habitat ESV calculated in the Constanza Synthesis (1997).
The result is a
demonstrated notional TEV of $53.353 Billion at an estimated cost of $2.024
million, for a benefit/cost of 26.36. The
calculated B/C ratio of 26.36 fell just
slightly higher than the same range of values demonstrated by our ARM 2010
summer interns where B/C = B:C ranged from
5 to 24.
From repeated
demonstrations, we conclude that a govt calculated TEV would place the economic
value of ecological benefits in its proper perspective, and when related to
cost in the B:C ratio, would provide a clear measure of Return on Investment,
i.e., a clear and measurable synthesis
based on TEV would sell the program.
While the Costanza
Synthesis has evoked some controversy as to its practical application, it
appears to be the only ESV paradigm to follow to provide a quick, inexpensive
reality check on the ESV expected value for a given ecosystem, and a guide-line
on how to proceed with a more localized TEV.
In the face of the PCAST (2011) Report to the President and the call for
agencies of the federal government to
move in this direction, and the NRC 2005 Study, the move in this direction is
costly slow.
Consider the following
Syllogism.
·
Environmental Capital provides the basis for all
economic activity
·
Environmental Capital in the form of Ecosystem
Services is of significant value to society
·
Assigning a Total Economic Value to Ecosystem
Services over time is a way to sustain environmental capital to protect society
and the economy.
·
Conclusion:
The dollar value of Ecosystem Services restored, enhanced, and sustained
will be much greater than the cost to restore, enhance sustain same.
Thus robust B:C ratios
greater than 20:1 should be no surprise. In the case of the attached calculations
giving a B:C of 26.36, a few comments:
(1) The big B:C should be no surprise; (2) the ESV calculation based on
HUA may be mildly optimistic, as a result of computer generated habit units
based on performance measures. (3) For a
conservative estimate of the value of wetlands, swamps (forested wetlands) and
estuaries, for back of the envelop calculations: Think $10,000 per acre per year and multiply
$10,000 by number of acres and years of life cycle (~40 years).
There are three
possibilities for calculating CEPP ESV in the TEV recommended by NRC 2005
1. Use the somewhat controversial Costanza
Synthesis (1997) and benefits transfer for a quicker, better, cheaper approach
for a ball park - same order of magnitude - expected value. (No other ESV paradigm appears to exists)
2. Spend three years and a few million dollars
to provide the preferred local TEV calculation of benefits.
3. Absent a publishable TEV of benefits, as
noted by the NRC 2005 study, the default value of benefits is zero (0), and there is over-focus on
costs. This is the present case for
CEPP.
If Mark Perry were here
for the Rivers Coalition, instead of DC, [giving testimony to Congress on the
need to protect and restore the estuaries] he would be calling for more flow
south, Plan 6 being the fix, Plan 6 being a central element of the Marshall
Plan.
We support CEPP as an
initial increment of the Marshall Plan, 1981, which had as its central element,
what became Plan 6 in 1994. This was not
accident. Art’s vision expressed in the 1981
– 1984 Marshall Plan, published by Marjory Stoneman Douglas as a Friends of the
Everglades News Letter, was to restore
sheet flow from the Kissimmee Basin to Florida Bay.
In context of a principle objective of CERP, read
this as Full DECOMP, and restoring habitat and functional quality. We need to keep our eyes on the prize. Given the WRAC comments October 3, 2013, that
is not happening. The devil remains in the details which impedes the total
ecosystem approach, a tenet of the Task Force strategic plan.
In a recent brief of the
Regional Climate Action Plan (RCAP) Brief to the PB Count Commission, we made
comments that CEPP was an essential element to an Action Plan. We were pleased to see at the top of the
RECAP action list: Planting Trees!
This immediately brought
to mind the need to restore the pond apple forest in CERP/CEPP as previously suggested as the means to (1) increase the
spatial extent of natural area; (2) restore habitat and functional quality, and
increase native species an abundance per CERP Table 5-1 goals and objectives.
Connecting the dots to
the previous presentation which mentioned the Okeechobee Gourd as an endangered
species. The pond apple forest provides
the habitat for the Okeechobee Gourd.
Recognizing that actions
on many of these comments must come in subsequent CEPP increments, we fully
support CEPP increment 1 as a significant step to restore the Everglades and
save the planet.
Thank you for your
consideration.
John Arthur Marshall. Chairman
of the Board.
Attachment: Spread-sheet model that demonstrates TEV by a
notional CEPP ESV calculation.
References:
Arthur R. Marshall Summer Interns
(2010); Valuing Ecosystem Services of a Restored River of Grass; Anglique
Giraud, et al; http://www.conference.ifas.ufl.edu/GEER2010/Poster%20PDFs/Marshall.pdf
Costanza Synthesis: 1997: The value of the world's ecosystem services and
natural capital, Robert Costanza, et al; Google Nature 387.
NRC 2005 Study: Valuing Ecosystem Services – Toward Better
Environmental Decision-Making; the National Academies Press
PCAST 2011: President’s Council of Advisors on Science & Technology; Report
to the President: Sustaining
Environmental Capital: Protecting Society and the Economy. http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/pcast_sustaining_environmental_capital_report.pdf